Projection of Construction and Demolition Waste in Norway

Current waste generation from the construction and demolition industry (C&D industry) in Norway is about 1.25 million tonnes per year. This article presents a procedure for projection of future waste amounts by estimating the activity level in the C&D industry, determining specific waste generation factors related to this activity, and finally calculating projections on flows of waste materials leaving the stocks in use and moving into the waste management system. This is done through a simple model of stocks and flows of buildings and materials. Monte Carlo simulation is used in the calculations to account for uncertainties related to the input parameters in order to make the results more robust. The results show a significant increase in C&D waste for the years to come, especially for the large fractions of concrete/bricks and wood. These projections can be a valuable source of information to predict the future need for waste treatment capacity, the dominant waste fractions, and the challenges in future waste handling systems. The proposed method is used in a forthcoming companion article for eco-efficiency modeling within an evaluation of a C&D waste system.