Dynamic material flow analysis for Norway's dwelling stock

The architecture, engineering and construction industry is a major producer of waste, and a major consumer of primary materials. This study presents a method for analysing the dynamics of both floor area and material use in residential housing. The population's demand for housing represents the driver in the system, and the subsequent effects on stocks and flows of residential floor area and building materials in Norway are investigated from 1900 to the projected demands for 2100. Results show that knowledge about past activity levels is important in projecting future levels. Scenarios are applied to the input parameters in the dynamic model to investigate the impacts of changes in these, including variations in material usage (concrete and wood) and material density. All but one scenario suggest a continued increase in the residential housing stock, although at diminishing growth rates, and a substantial increase in demolition, renovation and construction activity in the last half of the present century.

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